So many great contributions! Thank you for sharing. Interesting to see how the green transition is more and more often framed in terms of industrial strategies in a context of rising geopolitical tensions. Quite relevant for your class.
Naomi Schwarz
il y a 2 mois
Good morning everyone!
I came across an interesting article by the WSJ about robots and AI shifting China’s manufacturing. Although I highly recommend you to read the full piece here my key insights:
- China is using AI highly pragmatic: not to chase moonshots, but to upgrade everyday manufacturing processes from washing-machine assembly to port logistics.
- AI is often associated as an ecological hazard with its high energy and water consumption, however, AI optimisation in sectors like cement production is already cutting energy use and CO₂ emissions drastically, even though decarbonisation is not the primary goal.
- China faces a significant population decline and increasing refusal to work in factories deploying AI allows to maintain manufacturing dominance despite rising wages and declining labour supply.
The article emphasises that the utilisation of AI happens a lot faster in China than the US due to no workers’ unions. Trump is fearing mass redundancies that will in return affect the midterms.
What do these developments mean for Europe? Personally, I think these developments hint that Europe may soon face the uncomfortable choice between matching China’s pace of industrial AI adoption or reconciling itself to competing on niche craftsmanship while China expands its dominance of mass production. Let me know what you think!
Tangentially related to our lecture on diversifying critical materials in the Global South and the overall discussion on the EU's dependency on China, here’s an article publish yesterday by The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/03/eu-strategy-raw-materials-rare-earths-supply-chain-resourceeu.
I came across this article while studying for another course, but I thought it’d be an update worth sharing. It concerns the EC’s introduction of a €3 billion plan called RESourceEU to reduce EU’s dependency on China for critical raw material, and reflects on the EU’s trend to derisk and diversity its supply chains. There’s two strategies it envisions with this new plan — a molybdenum mine in Greenland and a lithium mine in Germany — alongside new rules to prevent the export of scrap aluminium and the recycling of magnets used in car batteries … a suggest read & current news in my opinion!
Thoughts on how proactive / efficient such a plan could be amidst geopolitical pressures?
Irene Guglielmi
il y a 2 mois
Further to my previous comment, I found this scholarly analysis (see below) to the ECB Board speeches which tries to understand the primary goal of the ECB in pursuing a more interventionist approach towards green challenges.
The author highlights how price stability seems to have become the key reason of the ECB, above environmental phenomena generating financial risk or green investment financing gap.
Do you think this is accurate?
Related to our discussion on the ECB role, I found this page on their website explaining clearly why they think they want to play a role in shaping the green transition, they span from market and financial stabilisation to pricing objectives. Super interesting to see how their points align/differ from our earlier in class discussion.
Building on Irina’s point about the geopolitical dimension of the green transition, I came across this article (https://energynewsbeat.co/europe-is-the-biggest-loser-in-us-china-rare-earth-wars/) that highlights another facet of the same dynamic. It focuses on a point we have largely discussed in class, namely how Europe is increasingly disadvantaged in the intensifying US-China rivalry over rare earths. This competition is portrayed as central to clean-tech manufacturing and strategic autonomy, as we have seen during our lecture.
The article clearly shows Europe’s structural dependency on external processing and the limited leverage it holds compared to the US and,especially China. In the broader context of fragmented global cooperation and diverging industrial strategies, it makes clear that whoever controls the upstream materials has a major say in how the transition unfolds.
I highly recommend you reading it!
Johannes
il y a 2 mois
Dear professors, dear colleagues,
Related to what we already talked about 2 weeks ago but what remains a central topic, I came across this article which deals with the enormous influence China already has and is further increasing in mining in Africa. It also partially talks about the opportunities arising for African countries. At the same time, it seems that China has more influence in that particular industry than Western countries have ever had. Therefore, I remain skeptical and rather retain my "pessimistic view" with regards to opportunities for Africa and the Global South as we discussed in the respective class.
Hi everyone, I came across this interesting new report by BCG that links directly to the discussion we had last week on Amir Lebdioui’s (2021) paper “How global decarbonisation can turn into an industrial development opportunity in Africa.” BCG argues that soaring global demand for clean-energy minerals gives Africa a major opportunity to move beyond exporting raw materials and develop higher-value industrial capabilities. The report highlights Africa’s strong mineral endowment but also key barriers, such as infrastructure gaps, regulatory inconsistency, and limited processing capacity, and recommends improving investment credibility, fostering regional value chains, and forming partnerships to capture more value, which aligns closely with the recommendations in Lebdioui’s work.
I recommend giving it a read as it's not very long, but it still provides concrete examples, clear policy ideas, and tangible economic insights.
Following up on what @Pietro Marina and @Elsa Massoc shared couple of weeks ago, the recent meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping brought forward a potential relaxation of trade tensions between the two superpowers. Trump has announced that indeed Beijing has agreed to stop for one year (and probably extend regularly) the rare earth trade restrictions which were announced last month. According to Trump, the issue seems archived.
However, this still highlights the power of China on rare earths supply chain showcasing also how they have truly become a lever for geopolitical bargain. Furthermore, our strategic vulnerability in terms of these materials for the green transition will not change through a temporary agreement.
I came across a recent report (October 2025) from the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), which covers some of the topics discussed in class: An Industrial
Policy Renaissance - The challenges and opportunities of going green (Tilman Altenburg, Rambod Behboodi, Aaron Cosbey)
https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/industrial-policy-renaissance
The report revisits historical elements that we have seen and provides an overview of the current situation through several case studies (China, USA, EU, Canada, Brazil, South Korea), before exploring implications and possible directions for the future.
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So many great contributions! Thank you for sharing. Interesting to see how the green transition is more and more often framed in terms of industrial strategies in a context of rising geopolitical tensions. Quite relevant for your class.
Good morning everyone!
I came across an interesting article by the WSJ about robots and AI shifting China’s manufacturing. Although I highly recommend you to read the full piece here my key insights:
- China is using AI highly pragmatic: not to chase moonshots, but to upgrade everyday manufacturing processes from washing-machine assembly to port logistics.
- AI is often associated as an ecological hazard with its high energy and water consumption, however, AI optimisation in sectors like cement production is already cutting energy use and CO₂ emissions drastically, even though decarbonisation is not the primary goal.
- China faces a significant population decline and increasing refusal to work in factories deploying AI allows to maintain manufacturing dominance despite rising wages and declining labour supply.
The article emphasises that the utilisation of AI happens a lot faster in China than the US due to no workers’ unions. Trump is fearing mass redundancies that will in return affect the midterms.
What do these developments mean for Europe? Personally, I think these developments hint that Europe may soon face the uncomfortable choice between matching China’s pace of industrial AI adoption or reconciling itself to competing on niche craftsmanship while China expands its dominance of mass production. Let me know what you think!
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-robots-china-manufacturing-89ae1b42?st=JeqYQm&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Tangentially related to our lecture on diversifying critical materials in the Global South and the overall discussion on the EU's dependency on China, here’s an article publish yesterday by The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/03/eu-strategy-raw-materials-rare-earths-supply-chain-resourceeu.
I came across this article while studying for another course, but I thought it’d be an update worth sharing. It concerns the EC’s introduction of a €3 billion plan called RESourceEU to reduce EU’s dependency on China for critical raw material, and reflects on the EU’s trend to derisk and diversity its supply chains. There’s two strategies it envisions with this new plan — a molybdenum mine in Greenland and a lithium mine in Germany — alongside new rules to prevent the export of scrap aluminium and the recycling of magnets used in car batteries … a suggest read & current news in my opinion!
Thoughts on how proactive / efficient such a plan could be amidst geopolitical pressures?
Further to my previous comment, I found this scholarly analysis (see below) to the ECB Board speeches which tries to understand the primary goal of the ECB in pursuing a more interventionist approach towards green challenges.
The author highlights how price stability seems to have become the key reason of the ECB, above environmental phenomena generating financial risk or green investment financing gap.
Do you think this is accurate?
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2024.2317969#abstract
Dear all,
Related to our discussion on the ECB role, I found this page on their website explaining clearly why they think they want to play a role in shaping the green transition, they span from market and financial stabilisation to pricing objectives. Super interesting to see how their points align/differ from our earlier in class discussion.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/climate/green_transition/html/index.en.html#:~:text=Although%20governments%20and%20legislators%20have%20the%20primary%20responsibility,prejudice%20to%20our%20primary%20objective%20of%20price%20stability.
Hello to all,
Building on Irina’s point about the geopolitical dimension of the green transition, I came across this article (https://energynewsbeat.co/europe-is-the-biggest-loser-in-us-china-rare-earth-wars/) that highlights another facet of the same dynamic. It focuses on a point we have largely discussed in class, namely how Europe is increasingly disadvantaged in the intensifying US-China rivalry over rare earths. This competition is portrayed as central to clean-tech manufacturing and strategic autonomy, as we have seen during our lecture.
The article clearly shows Europe’s structural dependency on external processing and the limited leverage it holds compared to the US and,especially China. In the broader context of fragmented global cooperation and diverging industrial strategies, it makes clear that whoever controls the upstream materials has a major say in how the transition unfolds.
I highly recommend you reading it!
Dear professors, dear colleagues,
Related to what we already talked about 2 weeks ago but what remains a central topic, I came across this article which deals with the enormous influence China already has and is further increasing in mining in Africa. It also partially talks about the opportunities arising for African countries. At the same time, it seems that China has more influence in that particular industry than Western countries have ever had. Therefore, I remain skeptical and rather retain my "pessimistic view" with regards to opportunities for Africa and the Global South as we discussed in the respective class.
Best, Johannes
Source: https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/china-deepens-green-minerals-partnerships-as-africa-becomes-its-strategic-powerhouse/9lzs5wl
Hi everyone, I came across this interesting new report by BCG that links directly to the discussion we had last week on Amir Lebdioui’s (2021) paper “How global decarbonisation can turn into an industrial development opportunity in Africa.” BCG argues that soaring global demand for clean-energy minerals gives Africa a major opportunity to move beyond exporting raw materials and develop higher-value industrial capabilities. The report highlights Africa’s strong mineral endowment but also key barriers, such as infrastructure gaps, regulatory inconsistency, and limited processing capacity, and recommends improving investment credibility, fostering regional value chains, and forming partnerships to capture more value, which aligns closely with the recommendations in Lebdioui’s work.
I recommend giving it a read as it's not very long, but it still provides concrete examples, clear policy ideas, and tangible economic insights.
Source: https://web-assets.bcg.com/9f/e8/d1283f694b5bb305ad61ad690e26/harnessing-africas-critical-mineral-opportunity.pdf
Following up on what @Pietro Marina and @Elsa Massoc shared couple of weeks ago, the recent meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping brought forward a potential relaxation of trade tensions between the two superpowers. Trump has announced that indeed Beijing has agreed to stop for one year (and probably extend regularly) the rare earth trade restrictions which were announced last month. According to Trump, the issue seems archived.
However, this still highlights the power of China on rare earths supply chain showcasing also how they have truly become a lever for geopolitical bargain. Furthermore, our strategic vulnerability in terms of these materials for the green transition will not change through a temporary agreement.
Source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/heres-what-trump-says-he-and-xi-agreed-to-in-their-meeting/ar-AA1PwvT6?ocid=BingNewsSerp
I came across a recent report (October 2025) from the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), which covers some of the topics discussed in class: An Industrial
Policy Renaissance - The challenges and opportunities of going green (Tilman Altenburg, Rambod Behboodi, Aaron Cosbey)
https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/industrial-policy-renaissance
The report revisits historical elements that we have seen and provides an overview of the current situation through several case studies (China, USA, EU, Canada, Brazil, South Korea), before exploring implications and possible directions for the future.