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Jules BUZON
il y a 5 mois

Hi everyone,

@Riccardo, I found your analysis of Northvolt’s bankruptcy very insightful. Building on this, an article in The Economist further elaborates on Northvolt’s downfall, offering additional lessons for Europe’s green industrial strategy. It highlights not only management and logistical failures but also systemic issues with Europe’s approach to industrial policy.

One critical point raised in The Economist is the over-reliance on the "infant-industry" argument, where governments heavily fund domestic champions in hopes of fostering global competitiveness. Northvolt, however, struggled to catch up with established Asian manufacturers like CATL and LG Energy Solution. The article argues that such policies can lead to inefficiencies and squander taxpayer money, as seen in Northvolt’s inability to scale lab-level innovations to commercial viability.

Your mention of weak investor support aligns with this critique. The Economist adds that stakeholders may have underestimated the risks, assuming continuous government backing would insulate the company. This overconfidence likely compounded Northvolt’s collapse when the Swedish government chose to step back.

Finally, the article advocates for a different approach: leveraging foreign direct investment to integrate global leaders into local economies, much like TSMC’s chip plant in Arizona or CATL’s battery facilities in Germany and Hungary. While Europe aspires to lead in green technology, welcoming foreign expertise might be a more pragmatic path to achieving this.

Northvolt's failure underlines the need for Europe to strike a balance between ambition and practical execution. The key issue is whether Europe should welcome more FDI in the green transition, or whether it is still possible to create competitive national champions.

For Sciences Po students (and maybe St Gallen students too), you can find the article on Proquest with your Sciences Po account: https://www.proquest.com/docview/3133740634/1900A4603FD4F90PQ/8?accountid=13739&sourcetype=Magazines

Markel AMO SÁNCHEZ
il y a 5 mois

Now that the new European Commission is up and running, I would like to comment on one of its ambitious new plans that has a lot to do with our course.
In her presentation of the political guidelines to the EP, Ursula Von der Leyen announced a Clean Industrial Deal which aims to decarbonise and lower energy prices to make Europe more competitive.
In the words of the Commission President: ‘the Clean Industrial Deal needs to foster competitive industries and quality jobs by simplifying procedures, channelling investments into energy-intensive sectors and clean technologies, and ensuring access to affordable energy supplies and raw materials. Moreover, the package should seek to promote joint procurement and better integration of the Energy Union while positioning the EU at the forefront of global climate diplomacy and trade’.
Of course, the proposal has both supporters and opponents. That is why I find it so interesting. Being a proposal that has only just started its journey through the European long policy making process, we can follow the whole process of building this supporting coalition, as well as the strategies that are adopted and how other countries react.
Here you have an interesting article written on October about the issue, when it was first announced: https://www.eera-set.eu/news-resources/5557-top-story-of-the-week-european-commission-sets-the-stage-for-clean-industrial-deal-in-line-with-draghi-report.html

Elsa Massoc
il y a 5 mois

Thought-provoking article in the FT about the (simplistic) narrative about "green jobs". Not enough to state that green industrial policy will create more and better job... This needs strategy and pragmatism to assess how and for whom...
https://www.ft.com/content/2d00d04f-53bf-4057-991d-0adff67d6a18

Roksolana Malyniak
il y a 5 mois

Hi, dear colleagues!

Today, after the lecture, I was impressed by the research of the guest lecturers, so I decided to share my thoughts on the smart farming.

In the face of growing global food demands and environmental challenges, smart farming emerges as a transformative approach to modern agriculture. By integrating advanced technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), and big data analytics, precision agriculture seeks to optimize the yield and quality of crops while minimizing ecological footprints. This report delves into the various innovations driving smart farming, offering insights into how these technologies can revolutionize farming practices.

- Internet of Things (IoT)
IoT devices play a pivotal role in smart farming by providing real-time monitoring of environmental conditions. Sensors deployed across fields can track soil moisture, crop health, and weather conditions, enabling precise irrigation and fertilization. Automated systems, such as smart greenhouses and livestock monitors, further enhance resource efficiency and reduce labor-intensive tasks.

- Robotics
Robotic technologies, including autonomous tractors and harvesters, streamline operations such as planting, weeding, and harvesting. Drones, another facet of agricultural robotics, perform aerial field surveys, pesticide spraying, and seeding. These machines increase operational efficiency and access to difficult terrains while providing detailed crop data through high-resolution imagery.

- Artificial Intelligence (AI)
AI in agriculture extends beyond mere data collection to sophisticated analysis and predictive modeling. Algorithms analyze sensor and drone data to forecast weather impacts, optimize crop rotations, and preemptively identify pest invasions. Machine learning models are particularly adept at diagnosing plant diseases and nutrient deficiencies, automating complex decision-making processes to boost productivity and sustainability.

- Big Data Analytics
Big data integrates diverse data streams—from satellite imagery to sensor data—providing a holistic view of agricultural operations. This comprehensive analysis helps farmers understand long-term trends and refine their farming strategies, ensuring precise application of resources and improved crop performance.

- GIS and Remote Sensing
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing technologies offer valuable tools for mapping, soil analysis, and operational planning. These technologies enable the monitoring of crop health and environmental conditions from a distance, aiding in efficient farm management and resource allocation.

- Blockchain
Blockchain technology introduces unprecedented transparency to the agricultural supply chain. By documenting every step from farm to table, blockchain enhances trust and accountability, facilitating secure transactions and agreements between stakeholders in the agricultural ecosystem.

Smart farming represents a forward-thinking approach to agriculture, aiming to meet increasing food needs while addressing environmental concerns. Through the adoption of IoT, robotics, AI, big data, GIS, and blockchain, farmers can achieve higher productivity and sustainability. As these technologies continue to evolve, they hold the promise of transforming agriculture into a more efficient, resilient, and environmentally friendly industry. This transition not only supports global food security but also promotes responsible stewardship of our natural resources, making smart farming a pivotal movement in the sustainable agriculture agenda.

Dear all, what are your initial thoughts on integrating technology like AI and IoT in agriculture? Do you see more benefits or potential drawbacks?

Thank you, and wish a pleasant evening!

Riccardo Casarin
il y a 5 mois

Hi all,

As part of our last class on geopolitics in the global south, we mentioned South Africa as an example of successful implementation of Green Industrial Policy. However, we only briefly tackled the role of institutions and governance.

In this context, I wanted to complement the case of Eskom shared in slide 27. Despite the state enabled the company to procure electricity based on socio-economic parameters (see the REIPPPP), it also created the ground for widespread corruption. An in-depth analysis can be found in the FT's video at this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-cLiO0AFDc.

The film states that the poor status of infrastructure in energy production was the result of a criminal syndicate formed by politicians, private individuals and illegal cartels. For example, workers in cahoots were producing multiple invoices for the same resource and splitting the profits. Another example is heavy political interference in the company often bypassing the BoD for critical decision-making.

I wonder whether managing the green transition in the global south is, in the first place, a case of creating strong guidelines/ regulatory frameworks. It seems that the ground rules of local markets are at times too weak to even think about the issues of finance (and pressure from investing states) or industrialisation (and lack of green infrastructure).

Riccardo Paramidani
il y a 5 mois

Hi everyone,

I just read an article in the Financial Times reporting that Northvolt, the Swedish battery manufacturer, has filed for bankruptcy despite securing $15 billion in investments and $55 billion in customer orders.

According to the article, the main reasons for Northvolt’s downfall include production delays and management challenges at its Skellefteå plant in Sweden. Additionally, its ambitious expansion plans, such as facilities in Germany and Canada, placed unsustainable financial strain on the company. The article also points out the lack of cohesive support from key investors like Volkswagen and Goldman Sachs, as well as the Swedish government’s decision not to provide further financial backing.

This development reflects the current difficulties of establishing a competitive green industry in Europe, particularly when competing with established manufacturers in Asia.

For those interested, here’s the article link: https://www.ft.com/content/09938004-21b9-4750-8fa2-9ed15c566d4e

Julio VAZQUEZ AGUILAR
il y a 5 mois

Hi all,

In the context of COP 29 I found the article: "Half way through the COP29 climate summit and the frustration is showing".

According to UNCTAD's head, the new cost of the green transition is now 1.1 trillion a year.

The article stresses the importance of governments to engage quickly so they are not outpaced by the global financial crisis. There are funding options and goals but there aren't countries taking up projects.
Other signs of criticism include focus on processes rather than results and the presence of fossil fuel lobbyists.

In the same grim vein, Reuters reported that MDBs were failing in attracting public money for climate fight during COP 29: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/beyond-b-loans-development-banks-seek-private-money-climate-change-fight-2024-11-19/

MDBs have private arms or a private focus (IDB Invest, IFC, EBRD) that have been recently reinforces with capital increases, but the article describes why co-investing in projects is not attractive for partner funds (sharing risk-related information and showing a "catalogue" of potential investments. Other private investor said it was due to unattractive returns.

It is shocking to read that, despite of the leeway for risk sharing that States and MDBs are offering, companies are not willing to invest in climate objectives.

Jules BUZON
il y a 5 mois

Good afternoon everyone,

After yesterday’s class, I found the recent New York Times article “China’s Soaring Emissions Are Upending Climate Politics” quite relevant. It provides a perspective on how China’s rapid economic growth and rising greenhouse gas emissions are reshaping global climate negotiations, especially regarding financial aid responsibilities.

China’s emissions have now surpassed Europe in cumulative historical contributions, which challenges traditional frameworks where the Global North alone shoulders the financial burden for climate adaptation in vulnerable countries. While China highlights its $24.5 billion in climate finance contributions since 2016, debates persist over its lack of transparency and resistance to formalizing commitments under U.N. agreements. Interestingly, this shift also exposes the tensions between historical emissions versus per capita emissions, as China and other populous nations like India still lag significantly behind Western countries on a per-person basis.

This dynamic complicates the narrative of climate justice. Wealthy countries like the U.S. and EU argue that China, as the largest annual emitter, should take on more responsibility. However, the article also underscores the hypocrisy of these nations, which have not fully delivered on past climate finance promises. Leaders from vulnerable nations, such as Prime Minister Gaston Browne of Antigua and Barbuda, continue to emphasize that small islands are disproportionately suffering while wealthy countries fall short on real action.

Finally, it exemplifies how the green transition is as much about equity and geopolitics as it is about reducing emissions. It also reminds us that finding a balance between historical responsibility, current emissions, and equitable financial commitments is a critical but contentious process. With the U.N. climate summit in Baku scheduled to end on this Friday, it will be interesting to see if negotiators can bridge these divides to ensure that climate finance is both adequate and fairly distributed.

Here’s the article for those interested: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/19/climate/china-emissions-fossil-fuels-climate.html

Andrej Planinsek
il y a 5 mois

After today's class where we briefly mentioned lithium nationalization efforts done by the government of Gabriel Boric, I wanted to check how this has been progressing since I haven't heard much about it after its announcement a few years back.

NZZ (see unlocked version in German https://archive.ph/20241102100227/https://www.nzz.ch/international/lithiumabbau-in-chile-indigene-unzufrieden-trotz-gewinnbeteiligung-ld.1848834) wrote an interesting article just two weeks ago highlighting that despite millions of dollars supposed to flow into the budgets of local municipalities (e.g., US company Albemarle having to give 3,5% of lithium sale profits to the surrounding areas), not everything is perfect - and far from it. Apparently, 85% of profits are taken by the government and not the municipalities which is why it has been referred to as a gold mine for the Chilean state. Additionally, it seems that local (indigenous) communities may have been excluded from important decision-making processes, not to mention scandals about intransparent reporting on the state of the environment by the mining companies in the past.

I think this article nicely highlights that even actions done in good faith for the green transition and the Chilean people (which is also why lithium nationalization was applauded by left-leaning political parties around the world and taken as a model) still require a lot of effort by various stakeholders for the profits to be evenly distributed.

Roksolana Malyniak
il y a 5 mois

Good evening, everyone,

After reading the proposed article ‘How global decarbonization can turn into an industrial development opportunity in Africa’ (https://afripoli.org/how-global-decarbonisation-can-turn-into-an-industrial-development-opportunity-in-africa) I have outlined the following risks that this country may face in the context of the GIT:

o Many African economies are heavily reliant on fossil fuel exports, which are likely to be adversely impacted as global demand shifts towards green energy.
o Africa's dependency on primary commodities makes its economies vulnerable to both climate change and shifts in global market dynamics related to decarbonization.
o While Africa has abundant mineral resources essential for low-carbon technologies, this poses risks of continued exploitation without sufficient local benefit.
o There is a need for significant investment in infrastructure to support renewable energy sources and industrial diversification.
o African countries must navigate changing international trade standards and develop local industries to meet these standards, particularly in sectors affected by policies like the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.
o Effective policies and regional cooperation are critical for harnessing the full potential of renewable energy for economic diversification and industrialization.

Considering the challenges that Africa faces in the context of global decarbonization and the Green Industrial Transition, what policies do you think African governments should prioritize to ensure an equitable and sustainable transition?

I thank you all for your involvement and wish you a pleasant evening!